Daily Notes 22 June 2022
For a new project on natural gas I am reading Vaclav Smil’s Natural Gas (2015). It is thorough, well researched and documented. The thing that comes through with overwhelming – and demoralising – force is the degree to which our civilisation is now dependent on natural gas, made up mainly of methane (as well as the other two main fossil fuels, oil and coal). Depressing because while natural gas is cleaner than oil or coal, it is, as surely everyone now knows, both a major greenhouse gas itself and produces plenty of CO2 when burned.
However, it is not just this which I find so depressing, it is all the things made from natural gas that we now find indispensable: chiefly nitrogen fertiliser and (most) plastics. The plastics problem is whole other complex nightmare, but there is little doubt that without huge quantities of synthetic fertiliser, the world will quickly start facing famine in many places. We are already seeing an artificial foretaste of this because Russia is, or at least was, the world’s largest exporter of fertiliser. Until its invasion of Ukraine, it accounted for 23% of ammonia and 14% of urea exports (both methane-based fertilisers) as well as 21% of potash and 10% of processed phosphates exports. [1]
As yet, the export situation is not clear to me:
- has the West has imposed bans on Russian exports?
- is Russia deliberately holding back exports?
- are the ports used for export being blocked or blockaded?
- are insurance premiums too high for Black Sea and Baltic transit?
Also, there is a suggestion that European fertiliser production may be curtailed (again) because of high gas prices. [2]
Trying to look on the bright side, a major producer of soy and corn, Brazil, which is heavily dependent on Russian fertiliser imports is trying to reduce that dependency, in part, by switching to organic fertiliser, increasing its own fertiliser production and research, and encouraging less wasteful use. They hope to reduce demand by 20% for 2022/2023. Brazil hopes to reduce its fertiliser imports from 85% to 45% – but only by 2050. And that tells you the scale of the task. In fact, until now, Brazil has been going in the exact opposite direction, more than doubling its fertiliser import quantity in less than ten years. [1] I suppose it is a beginning, but really it just illustrates the absurd and overstretched state of the world’s food production system.
The above leaves aside completely the vital question of Borlaug vs Vogt, innovate vs self-control: should we even be using this vast quantity of synthetic fertiliser? Is it not a trap that will have horrific consequences?
Speaking of fertiliser, or at least soil, but on a tiny scale, the compost that we have used on our allotment this year is almost certainly poor quality and not nearly as good as the seasoned horse manure we got last year. I decided that should do a DIY soil test on it, but it looks like the Ph-NPK home kits are worthless. There is also the matter of whether using such a kit will give you the right guidance if you want to avoid commercial NPK fertiliser and use organic fertiliser, which is certainly our intention.